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1.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 10(5): ofad187, 2023 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2322478

RESUMEN

Background: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) BA.2/BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/BA.5 subvariants have mutations associated with increased capacity to evade immunity when compared with prior variants. We evaluated mRNA monovalent booster dose effectiveness among persons ≥5 years old during BA.2/BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/BA.5 predominance. Methods: A test-negative, case-control analysis included data from 12 148 pharmacy SARS-CoV-2 testing sites nationwide for persons aged ≥5 years with ≥1 coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19)-like symptoms and a SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test from April 2 to August 31, 2022. Relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) was estimated comparing 3 doses of COVID-19 mRNA monovalent vaccine to 2 doses; for tests among persons ≥50 years, rVE estimates also compared 4 doses to 3 doses (≥4 months since third dose). Results: A total of 760 986 test-positive cases and 817 876 test-negative controls were included. Among individuals ≥12 years, rVE of 3 versus 2 doses ranged by age group from 45% to 74% at 1-month post vaccination and waned to 0% by 5-7 months post vaccination during the BA.4/BA.5 period.Adults aged ≥50 years (fourth dose eligible) who received 4 doses were less likely to have symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with those with 3 doses; this rVE remained >0% through at least 3 months since last dose. For those aged ≥65 years, rVE of 4 versus 3 doses 1-month post vaccination was higher during BA.2/BA.2.12.1 (rVE = 49%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 43%-53%) than BA.4/BA.5 (rVE = 40%; 95% CI, 36%-44%). In 50- to 64-year-olds, rVE estimates were similar. Conclusions: Monovalent mRNA booster doses provided additional protection against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection during BA.2/BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/BA.5 subvariant circulation, but protection waned over time.

2.
J Am Coll Emerg Physicians Open ; 3(1): e12605, 2022 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2318080

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The BinaxNOW coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Ag Card test (Abbott Diagnostics Scarborough, Inc.) is a lateral flow immunochromatographic point-of-care test for the qualitative detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) nucleocapsid protein antigen. It provides results from nasal swabs in 15 minutes. Our purpose was to determine its sensitivity and specificity for a COVID-19 diagnosis. METHODS: Eligible patients had symptoms of COVID-19 or suspected exposure. After consent, 2 nasal swabs were collected; 1 was tested using the Abbott RealTime SARS-CoV-2 (ie, the gold standard polymerase chain reaction test) and the second run on the BinaxNOW point of care platform by emergency department staff. RESULTS: From July 20 to October 28, 2020, 767 patients were enrolled, of which 735 had evaluable samples. Their mean (SD) age was 46.8 (16.6) years, and 422 (57.4%) were women. A total of 623 (84.8%) patients had COVID-19 symptoms, most commonly shortness of breath (n = 404; 55.0%), cough (n = 314; 42.7%), and fever (n = 253; 34.4%). Although 460 (62.6%) had symptoms ≤7 days, the mean (SD) time since symptom onset was 8.1 (14.0) days. Positive tests occurred in 173 (23.5%) and 141 (19.2%) with the gold standard versus BinaxNOW test, respectively. Those with symptoms >2 weeks had a positive test rate roughly half of those with earlier presentations. In patients with symptoms ≤7 days, the sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values for the BinaxNOW test were 84.6%, 98.5%, 94.9%, and 95.2%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The BinaxNOW point-of-care test has good sensitivity and excellent specificity for the detection of COVID-19. We recommend using the BinasNOW for patients with symptoms up to 2 weeks.

3.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 71(48): 1526-1530, 2022 Dec 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2294310

RESUMEN

On September 1, 2022, bivalent COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, composed of components from the SARS-CoV-2 ancestral and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 strains, were recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) to address reduced effectiveness of COVID-19 monovalent vaccines during SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant predominance (1). Initial recommendations included persons aged ≥12 years (Pfizer-BioNTech) and ≥18 years (Moderna) who had completed at least a primary series of any Food and Drug Administration-authorized or -approved monovalent vaccine ≥2 months earlier (1). On October 12, 2022, the recommendation was expanded to include children aged 5-11 years. At the time of recommendation, immunogenicity data were available from clinical trials of bivalent vaccines composed of ancestral and Omicron BA.1 strains; however, no clinical efficacy data were available. In this study, effectiveness of the bivalent (Omicron BA.4/BA.5-containing) booster formulation against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was examined using data from the Increasing Community Access to Testing (ICATT) national SARS-CoV-2 testing program.* During September 14-November 11, 2022, a total of 360,626 nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) performed at 9,995 retail pharmacies for adults aged ≥18 years, who reported symptoms consistent with COVID-19 at the time of testing and no immunocompromising conditions, were included in the analysis. Relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of a bivalent booster dose compared with that of ≥2 monovalent vaccine doses among persons for whom 2-3 months and ≥8 months had elapsed since last monovalent dose was 30% and 56% among persons aged 18-49 years, 31% and 48% among persons aged 50-64 years, and 28% and 43% among persons aged ≥65 years, respectively. Bivalent mRNA booster doses provide additional protection against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 in immunocompetent persons who previously received monovalent vaccine only, with relative benefits increasing with time since receipt of the most recent monovalent vaccine dose. Staying up to date with COVID-19 vaccination, including getting a bivalent booster dose when eligible, is critical to maximizing protection against COVID-19 (1).


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Adulto , Niño , Humanos , Adolescente , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Vacunas Combinadas , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , ARN Mensajero , Prueba de COVID-19 , Vacunas de ARNm
4.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 72(7): 177-182, 2023 Feb 17.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2259312

RESUMEN

On June 18, 2022, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) issued interim recommendations for use of the 2-dose monovalent Moderna COVID-19 vaccine as a primary series for children aged 6 months-5 years* and the 3-dose monovalent Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine as a primary series for children aged 6 months-4 years,† based on safety, immunobridging, and limited efficacy data from clinical trials (1-3). Monovalent mRNA vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was evaluated using the Increasing Community Access to Testing (ICATT) program, which provides SARS-CoV-2 testing to persons aged ≥3 years at pharmacy and community-based testing sites nationwide§ (4,5). Among children aged 3-5 years with one or more COVID-19-like illness symptoms¶ for whom a nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) was performed during August 1, 2022-February 5, 2023, VE of 2 monovalent Moderna doses (complete primary series) against symptomatic infection was 60% (95% CI = 49% to 68%) 2 weeks-2 months after receipt of the second dose and 36% (95% CI = 15% to 52%) 3-4 months after receipt of the second dose. Among symptomatic children aged 3-4 years with NAATs performed during September 19, 2022-February 5, 2023, VE of 3 monovalent Pfizer-BioNTech doses (complete primary series) against symptomatic infection was 31% (95% CI = 7% to 49%) 2 weeks-4 months after receipt of the third dose; statistical power was not sufficient to estimate VE stratified by time since receipt of the third dose. Complete monovalent Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech primary series vaccination provides protection for children aged 3-5 and 3-4 years, respectively, against symptomatic infection for at least the first 4 months after vaccination. CDC expanded recommendations for use of updated bivalent vaccines to children aged ≥6 months on December 9, 2022 (6), which might provide increased protection against currently circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants (7,8). Children should stay up to date with recommended COVID-19 vaccines, including completing the primary series; those who are eligible should receive a bivalent vaccine dose.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Niño , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Vacuna BNT162 , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , Vacuna nCoV-2019 mRNA-1273 , Prueba de COVID-19 , Vacunas de ARNm , Vacunas Combinadas
5.
Semin Thromb Hemost ; 48(7): 769-784, 2022 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2239425

RESUMEN

There has been a significant interest in the last decade in the use of viscoelastic tests (VETs) to determine the hemostatic competence of bleeding patients. Previously, common coagulation tests (CCTs) such as the prothrombin time (PT) and partial thromboplastin time (PTT) were used to assist in the guidance of blood component and hemostatic adjunctive therapy for these patients. However, the experience of decades of VET use in liver failure with transplantation, cardiac surgery, and trauma has now spread to obstetrical hemorrhage and congenital and acquired coagulopathies. Since CCTs measure only 5 to 10% of the lifespan of a clot, these assays have been found to be of limited use for acute surgical and medical conditions, whereby rapid results are required. However, there are medical indications for the PT/PTT that cannot be supplanted by VETs. Therefore, the choice of whether to use a CCT or a VET to guide blood component therapy or hemostatic adjunctive therapy may often require consideration of both methodologies. In this review, we provide examples of the relative indications for CCTs and VETs in monitoring hemostatic competence of bleeding patients.


Asunto(s)
Trastornos de la Coagulación Sanguínea , Hemostáticos , Humanos , Tromboelastografía/métodos , Pruebas de Coagulación Sanguínea , Hemostasis , Trastornos de la Coagulación Sanguínea/terapia , Hemorragia/terapia
6.
Am J Health Promot ; : 8901171221119796, 2022 Aug 25.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2236442

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: Information on incentives for COVID-19 testing is needed to understand effective practices that encourage testing uptake. We describe characteristics of those who received an incentive after performing a rapid antigen test. DESIGN: Cross-sectional descriptive analysis of survey data. SETTING: During April 29-May 9, 2021, COVID-19 rapid antigen testing was offered in 2 Maryland cities. SAMPLE: Convenience sample of 553 adults (≥18 years) who tested and received an incentive; 93% consented to survey. MEASURES: Survey questions assessed reasons for testing, testing history, barriers, and demographics. ANALYSIS: Robust Poisson regressions were used to determine characteristic differences based on testing history and between participants who would re-test in the future without an incentive vs participants who would not. RESULTS: The most common reasons for testing were the desire to be tested (n = 280; 54%) and convenience of location (n = 146; 28%). Those motivated by an incentive to test (n = 110; 21%) were 5.83 times as likely to state they would not test again without an incentive, compared to those with other reasons for testing (95% CI: 2.67-12.72, P < .001). CRITICAL LIMITATIONS: No comparative study group. CONCLUSION: Results indicate internal motivation and convenience were prominent factors supporting testing uptake. Incentives may increase community testing participation, particularly among people who have never tested. Keywords COVID-19, pandemic, incentives, health behavior, community testing.

7.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 72(5): 125-127, 2023 Feb 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2226325

RESUMEN

Monitoring emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages and their epidemiologic characteristics helps to inform public health decisions regarding vaccine policy, the use of therapeutics, and health care capacity. When the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant emerged in late 2020, a spike gene (S-gene) deletion (Δ69-70) in the N-terminal region, which might compensate for immune escape mutations that impair infectivity (1), resulted in reduced or failed S-gene target amplification in certain multitarget reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assays, a pattern referred to as S-gene target failure (SGTF) (2). The predominant U.S. SARS-CoV-2 lineages have generally alternated between SGTF and S-gene target presence (SGTP), which alongside genomic sequencing, has facilitated early monitoring of emerging variants. During a period when Omicron BA.5-related sublineages (which exhibit SGTF) predominated, an XBB.1.5 sublineage with SGTP has rapidly expanded in the northeastern United States and other regions.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Salud Pública , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , COVID-19/epidemiología , Mutación , Prueba de COVID-19
8.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 72(5): 119-124, 2023 02 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2226324

RESUMEN

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineage XBB was first detected in the United States in August 2022.* XBB together with a sublineage, XBB.1.5, accounted for >50% of sequenced lineages in the Northeast by December 31, 2022, and 52% of sequenced lineages nationwide as of January 21, 2023. COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) can vary by SARS-CoV-2 variant; reduced VE has been observed against some variants, although this is dependent on the health outcome of interest. The goal of the U.S. COVID-19 vaccination program is to prevent severe disease, including hospitalization and death (1); however, VE against symptomatic infection can provide useful insight into vaccine protection against emerging variants in advance of VE estimates against more severe disease. Data from the Increasing Community Access to Testing (ICATT) national pharmacy program for SARS-CoV-2 testing were analyzed to estimate VE of updated (bivalent) mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against symptomatic infection caused by BA.5-related and XBB/XBB.1.5-related sublineages among immunocompetent adults during December 1, 2022­January 13, 2023. Reduction or failure of spike gene (S-gene) amplification (SGTF) in real-time reverse transcription­polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was used as a proxy indicator of infection with likely BA.5-related sublineages and S-gene target presence (SGTP) of infection with likely XBB/XBB.1.5-related sublineages (2). Among 29,175 nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) with SGTF or SGTP results available from adults who had previously received 2­4 monovalent COVID-19 vaccine doses, the relative VE of a bivalent booster dose given 2­3 months earlier compared with no bivalent booster in persons aged 18­49 years was 52% against symptomatic BA.5 infection and 48% against symptomatic XBB/XBB.1.5 infection. As new SARS-CoV-2 variants emerge, continued vaccine effectiveness monitoring is important. Bivalent vaccines appear to provide additional protection against symptomatic BA.5-related sublineage and XBB/XBB.1.5-related sublineage infections in persons who had previously received 2, 3, or 4 monovalent vaccine doses. All persons should stay up to date with recommended COVID-19 vaccines, including receiving a bivalent booster dose when they are eligible.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Adulto , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Vacunas Combinadas , Prueba de COVID-19 , Eficacia de las Vacunas , ARN Mensajero
10.
Clin Case Rep ; 10(12): e6790, 2022 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2172753

RESUMEN

SARS-CoV-2 infection can manifest many rashes. However, thrombotic retiform purpura rarely occurs during COVID-19 illness. Aggressive anti-COVID-19 therapy with a high-dose steroid regimen led to rapid recovery. This immunothrombotic phenomenon likely represents a poor type 1 interferon response and complement activation on the endothelial surface in response to acute infection.

11.
BMJ Open ; 12(12): e065568, 2022 12 29.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2193790

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: To determine the negative predictive value (NPV) of the FebriDx point-of-care host response device in patients presenting with symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 infection in a mostly immunised Australian emergency department (ED) population during the late 2021 phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Observational diagnostic accuracy study comparing FebriDx point-of-care test to SARS-CoV-2 PCR. SETTING: An ED in Melbourne, Australia, with 63 000 annual presentations in 2021. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged 16 and over who met the Victorian Department of Health case definition for suspected COVID-19 infection PCR testing. Patients meeting any of the following criteria were excluded: <16 years of age; acute respiratory symptom(s) with onset>14 days prior to testing; current immunosuppressive or interferon therapy; live immunisation within the last 30 days; fever lasting>7 days; antibiotic or antiviral use in the preceding 14 days; experience of major trauma, major surgical intervention or severe burns within the last 30 days. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: COVID-19 PCR results (detected, not detected) and FebriDx results (bacterial positive, viral negative, viral positive). RESULTS: 94 participants were enrolled (female: 46; male: 48), 34% of participants (tested positive for COVID-19 according to PCR results, with a background incidence among all adult ED attenders of 2.5%. The sensitivity of FebriDx for detection of COVID-19 was 56% (95% CI 40% to 100%) and specificity was 92% (95% CI 84% to 100%). For the population tested, this resulted in an NPV of 80% (95% CI 71% to 100%) and a positive predictive value of 78% (95% CI 60% to 100%). CONCLUSIONS: In the context of a population with low COVID-19 infection rates, an evolved variant of COVID-19 and a very high community COVID-19 vaccination rate, FebriDx demonstrated reduced sensitivity and NPV relative to results from earlier international tests. These contextual factors should be considered during any attempt to generalise the current results. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12620001029987 (Australian Clinical Trials).


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Adulto , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Adolescente , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , SARS-CoV-2 , Pandemias , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , Australia/epidemiología , Pruebas en el Punto de Atención , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital
12.
Semin Thromb Hemost ; 48(7): 858-868, 2022 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2050628

RESUMEN

Earlier variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been associated with hypercoagulability and an extensive formation of fibrin amyloid microclots, which are considered to contribute to the pathology of the coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19). The newer omicron variants appear to be far more transmissible, but less virulent, even when taking immunity acquired from previous infections or vaccination into account. We here show that while the clotting parameters associated with omicron variants are significantly raised over those of healthy, matched controls, they are raised to levels significantly lower than those seen with more severe variants such as beta and delta. We also observed that individuals infected with omicron variants manifested less extensive microclot formation in platelet-poor plasma compared with those harboring the more virulent variants. The measurement of clotting effects between the different variants acts as a kind of "internal control" that demonstrates the relationship between the extent of coagulopathies and the virulence of the variant of interest. This adds to the evidence that microclots may play an important role in reflecting the severity of symptoms observed in COVID-19.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , Fibrina
13.
BMC Infect Dis ; 22(1): 552, 2022 Jun 17.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1962758

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Initial reports on US COVID-19 showed different outcomes in different races. In this study we use a diverse large cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients to determine predictors of mortality. METHODS: We analyzed data from hospitalized COVID-19 patients (n = 5852) between March 2020- August 2020 from 8 hospitals across the US. Demographics, comorbidities, symptoms and laboratory data were collected. RESULTS: The cohort contained 3,662 (61.7%) African Americans (AA), 286 (5%) American Latinx (LAT), 1,407 (23.9%), European Americans (EA), and 93 (1.5%) American Asians (AS). Survivors and non-survivors mean ages in years were 58 and 68 for AA, 58 and 77 for EA, 44 and 61 for LAT, and 51 and 63 for AS. Mortality rates for AA, LAT, EA and AS were 14.8, 7.3, 16.3 and 2.2%. Mortality increased among patients with the following characteristics: age, male gender, New York region, cardiac disease, COPD, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, history of cancer, immunosuppression, elevated lymphocytes, CRP, ferritin, D-Dimer, creatinine, troponin, and procalcitonin. Use of mechanical ventilation (p = 0.001), shortness of breath (SOB) (p < 0.01), fatigue (p = 0.04), diarrhea (p = 0.02), and increased AST (p < 0.01), significantly correlated with death in multivariate analysis. Male sex and EA and AA race/ethnicity had higher frequency of death. Diarrhea was among the most common GI symptom amongst AAs (6.8%). When adjusting for comorbidities, significant variables among the demographics of study population were age (over 45 years old), male sex, EA, and patients hospitalized in New York. When adjusting for disease severity, significant variables were age over 65 years old, male sex, EA as well as having SOB, elevated CRP and D-dimer. Glucocorticoid usage was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 death in our cohort. CONCLUSION: Among this large cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients enriched for African Americans, our study findings may reflect the extent of systemic organ involvement by SARS-CoV-2 and subsequent progression to multi-system organ failure. High mortality in AA in comparison with LAT is likely related to high frequency of comorbidities and older age among AA. Glucocorticoids should be used carefully considering the poor outcomes associated with it. Special focus in treating patients with elevated liver enzymes and other inflammatory biomarkers such as CRP, troponin, ferritin, procalcitonin, and D-dimer are required to prevent poor outcomes.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Negro o Afroamericano , Anciano , Biomarcadores , Diarrea , Ferritinas , Hospitalización , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Polipéptido alfa Relacionado con Calcitonina , Estudios Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2 , Troponina
14.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 9(7): ofac213, 2022 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1931881

RESUMEN

Background: Characterization of disease progression and outcomes after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related hospitalization in vaccinated compared with unvaccinated individuals is limited. Methods: This was a retrospective case-control study of symptomatic vaccinated (cases) and unvaccinated (controls) participants hospitalized for COVID-19 between December 30, 2020, and September 30, 2021, in Southeast Michigan. Hospitalized adult patients with lab-confirmed COVID-19 were identified through daily census report. Breakthrough infection was defined as detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ≥14 days after completion of the primary vaccination series. The association between prior vaccination and critical COVID-19 illness (composite of intensive care unit [ICU] admission, invasive mechanical ventilation [IMV], 28-day mortality) was examined. Results: Two hundred ten (39%) fully vaccinated and 325 (61%) unvaccinated patients were evaluated. Compared with controls, cases were older, had more comorbidities (4 [3-7] vs 2 [1-4]; P < .001), and were more likely to be immunocompromised. Cases had less severe symptoms compared with controls (2 [1-2] vs 2 [2-3]; P < .001) and were less likely to progress to critical COVID-19 illness (33.3% vs 45.5%; P < .001); 28-day mortality was significantly lower in cases (11.0% vs 24.9%; P < .001). Symptom severity (odds ratio [OR], 2.59; 95% CI, 1.61-4.16; P < .001) and modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score on presentation (OR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.48-2.06; P < .001) were independently associated with development of critical COVID-19 illness. Prior vaccination (OR, 0.528; 95% CI, 0.307-0.910; P = .020) was protective. Conclusions: COVID-19-vaccinated patients were less likely to develop critical COVID-19 illness and more likely to survive. Disease severity at presentation was a predictor of adverse outcomes regardless of vaccination status.

15.
Healthcare (Basel) ; 10(6)2022 Jun 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1911288

RESUMEN

The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the existing concern about the uncertainty surrounding patient arrival and the overutilization of resources in emergency departments (EDs). The prediction of variations in patient arrivals is vital for managing limited healthcare resources and facilitating data-driven resource planning. The objective of this study was to forecast ED patient arrivals during a pandemic over different time horizons. A secondary objective was to compare the performance of different forecasting models in predicting ED patient arrivals. We included all ED patient encounters at an urban teaching hospital between January 2019 and December 2020. We divided the data into training and testing datasets and applied univariate and multivariable forecasting models to predict daily ED visits. The influence of COVID-19 lockdown and climatic factors were included in the multivariable models. The model evaluation consisted of the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) over different forecasting horizons. Our exploratory analysis illustrated that monthly and weekly patterns impact daily demand for care. The Holt-Winters approach outperformed all other univariate and multivariable forecasting models for short-term predictions, while the Long Short-Term Memory approach performed best in extended predictions. The developed forecasting models are able to accurately predict ED patient arrivals and peaks during a surge when tested on two years of data from a high-volume urban ED. These short- and long-term prediction models can potentially enhance ED and hospital resource planning.

16.
JAMA ; 327(22): 2210-2219, 2022 06 14.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1905741

RESUMEN

Importance: Efficacy of 2 doses of the BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech) against COVID-19 was high in pediatric trials conducted before the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant emerged. Among adults, estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 2 BNT162b2 doses against symptomatic Omicron infection was reduced compared with prior variants, waned rapidly, and increased with a booster. Objective: To evaluate the association of symptomatic infection with prior vaccination with BNT162b2 to estimate VE among children and adolescents during Omicron variant predominance. Design, Setting, and Participants: A test-negative, case-control analysis was conducted using data from 6897 pharmacy-based, drive-through SARS-CoV-2 testing sites across the US from a single pharmacy chain in the Increasing Community Access to Testing platform. This analysis included 74 208 tests from children 5 to 11 years of age and 47 744 tests from adolescents 12 to 15 years of age with COVID-19-like illness who underwent SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification testing from December 26, 2021, to February 21, 2022. Exposures: Two BNT162b2 doses 2 weeks or more before SARS-CoV-2 testing vs no vaccination for children; 2 or 3 doses 2 weeks or more before testing vs no vaccination for adolescents (who are recommended to receive a booster dose). Main Outcomes and Measures: Symptomatic infection. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) for the association of prior vaccination and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was used to estimate VE: VE = (1 - OR) × 100%. Results: A total of 30 999 test-positive cases and 43 209 test-negative controls were included from children 5 to 11 years of age, as well as 22 273 test-positive cases and 25 471 test-negative controls from adolescents 12 to 15 years of age. The median age among those with included tests was 10 years (IQR, 7-13); 61 189 (50.2%) were female, 75 758 (70.1%) were White, and 29 034 (25.7%) were Hispanic/Latino. At 2 to 4 weeks after dose 2, among children, the adjusted OR was 0.40 (95% CI, 0.35-0.45; estimated VE, 60.1% [95% CI, 54.7%-64.8%]) and among adolescents, the OR was 0.40 (95% CI, 0.29-0.56; estimated VE, 59.5% [95% CI, 44.3%-70.6%]). During month 2 after dose 2, among children, the OR was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67-0.76; estimated VE, 28.9% [95% CI, 24.5%-33.1%]) and among adolescents, the OR was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.76-0.92; estimated VE, 16.6% [95% CI, 8.1%-24.3%]). Among adolescents, the booster dose OR 2 to 6.5 weeks after the dose was 0.29 (95% CI, 0.24-0.35; estimated VE, 71.1% [95% CI, 65.5%-75.7%]). Conclusions and Relevance: Among children and adolescents, estimated VE for 2 doses of BNT162b2 against symptomatic infection was modest and decreased rapidly. Among adolescents, the estimated effectiveness increased after a booster dose.


Asunto(s)
Vacuna BNT162 , COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Eficacia de las Vacunas , Adolescente , Vacuna BNT162/uso terapéutico , COVID-19/prevención & control , COVID-19/virología , Prueba de COVID-19 , Vacunas contra la COVID-19/uso terapéutico , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Inmunización Secundaria , Masculino , Vacunación
20.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 9(5): ofac116, 2022 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1795131

RESUMEN

Background: Characterizations of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine breakthrough infections are limited. We aim to characterize breakthrough infections and identify risk factors associated with outcomes. Methods: This was a retrospective case series of consecutive fully vaccinated patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in a multicenter academic center in Southeast Michigan, between December 30, 2020, and September 15, 2021. Results: A total of 982 patients were identified; the mean age was 57.9 years, 565 (59%) were female, 774 (79%) were White, and 255 (26%) were health care workers (HCWs). The median number of comorbidities was 2; 225 (23%) were immunocompromised. BNT162b2 was administered to 737 (75%) individuals. The mean time to SARS-CoV-2 detection was 135 days. The majority were asymptomatic or exhibited mild to moderate disease, 154 (16%) required hospitalization, 127 (13%) had severe-critical illness, and 19 (2%) died. Age (odds ratio [OR], 1.14; 95% CI, 1.04-1.07; P < .001), cardiovascular disease (OR, 3.02; 95% CI, 1.55-5.89; P = .001), and immunocompromised status (OR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.70-3.90; P < .001) were independent risk factors for hospitalization. Additionally, age (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.11; P = .006) was significantly associated with mortality. HCWs (OR, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.05-0.50; P = .002) were less likely to be hospitalized, and prior receipt of BNT162b2 was associated with lower odds of hospitalization (OR, 0.436; 95% CI, 0.303-0.626; P < .001) and/or death (OR, 0.360; 95% CI, 0.145-0.898; P = .029). Conclusions: COVID-19 vaccines remain effective at attenuating disease severity. However, patients with breakthrough infections necessitating hospitalization may benefit from early treatment modalities and COVID-19-mitigating strategies, especially in areas with substantial or high transmission rates.

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